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Scooped by
Graham Watson
onto International Economics: IB Economics |
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Former US central bank head Janet Yellen says the president has no grasp of key issues or the Fed's purpose.
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From
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He previously warned Chinese car makers would "demolish" rivals if there were no trade barriers.
Graham Watson's insight:
It's interesting - and entirely in character for Elon Musk to contradict himself - that the Tesla boss is opposed to US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
His argument, according to the article is that "Things that inhibit freedom of exchange or distort the market are not good". China is, of course, likely to retaliate.
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Editorial: Joe Biden and Donald Trump agree on tariffs against China. The world has lost its biggest cheerleader for globalisation
Graham Watson's insight:
A rather sad lament in today's Guardian proclaiming the end of free trade, with both Presidential candidates in favour of protectionism, having introduced tariffs on Chinese-made goods. It seems as though nearly 40 years of economic orthodoxy, believing in free trade as lowering prices and promoting competition, have been sacrificed on the altar of politics.
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Protectionism in the form of tariffs is justified but the focus will be on whether Beijing retaliates
Graham Watson's insight:
Larry Elliott produces a number of justifications for US protectionist measures against China: economic growth hasn't been accompanied by liberalization, China's disregard for intellectual property rights and the fact that it has hollowed out much of American manufacturing all suggest that there's a case for aggressive industrial policy and the imposition of tariffs.
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OThe US economic boom has consequences for the global balance of power - and for the UK.
Graham Watson's insight:
The headline to this article looks to be remarkable: can an economy be doing "too well". However, the reason for it might be that for all the talk of a successful green transition and job creation in the US, the economy is only operating beyond the full employment level of national income because of borrowing, and the inflationary effects of this mean that the standard of living of the average US worker hasn't really been improved at all.
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Joe Biden announced huge new tariffs on imports from China, in a move that Donald Trump says does not go far enough
Graham Watson's insight:
A little look at the increase in US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles among other items. It looks at the reasons for tariffs - not economic - and their likely implications, not least if China retaliates.
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UK manufacturers and retailers are not yet passing on all the costs of diverting ships round southern Africa – but can that last?
Graham Watson's insight:
The ongoing trouble in the Red Sea has meant longer journey times and increased shipping costs; this Observer article looks at the implications of this for global inflation noting that, as yet, retailers have yet to pass on the majority of these costs.
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From
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The move follows Huawei's release of an AI-enabled computer powered by a chip created by Intel.
Graham Watson's insight:
Again, the US-China trade war rumbles on - this time the Americans have placed restrictions on the export of some computer chips to Huawei, designed to stop the company accelerating its development of artificial intelligence.
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Bloc ‘will not waver’ from making tough decisions to protect economy and security, says Ursula von der Leyen
Graham Watson's insight:
Is there another trade war in the offing, with the news that the EU is weighing up whether to impose protectionist barriers to protect the electric car, steel and renewable energy markets from cheap Chinese imports?
The EU authorities claim that Chinese state support in these sectors means that there is unfair competition in these markets and that, as a result, European firms and European jobs are under threat.
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May 7, 5:32 AM
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From
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Employers in the US added 175,000 jobs in the US in April, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.
Graham Watson's insight:
Much like the UK, it seems as though the US is currently stuck in limbo, unable to decide whether to fully recover or not. Having seen the Federal Reserve keep interest rates at 5.25-5.5%, the latest US jobs data saw comparatively few new jobs created an unemployment rise.
As a result, some are speculating that interest rate cuts might be back on the agenda sooner rather than later.
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France, Spain, Germany and Italy helped by lower inflation and prospect of interest rate cuts
Graham Watson's insight:
Hurrah! Europe has exited recession, with the big four economies - France, Spain, Germany and Italy - helping push Eurozone growth for the first quarter to 0.3%, exceeding expectations. It seems that the prospect of falling inflation and accommodative monetary policy mean that it will slowly recover, although growth will remain moderate.
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From
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The world's largest economy grew less than expected but rising inflation may delay a rate cut.
Graham Watson's insight:
Mixed data from the US: economic growth is good-ish, at an annualised rate of 1.6%, although lower than expected, but inflation for the first three months of the year is 3.4%.
The latter means that there's little imminent prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and thus similarly little prospect of other central banks following suit.
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World’s billionaires should pay minimum 2% wealth tax, say G20 ministers | Inequality | The Guardian
Brazil, Germany, Spain and South Africa sign motion for fairer tax system to deliver £250bn a year extra to fight poverty and climate crisis
Graham Watson's insight:
The latest meeting of G20 ministers has called for a 2% global wealth tax for the world's 3,000 billionaires, arguing that it could create a fund to reduce poverty, fight climate change and promote sustainable development.
It seems as though the call for a fairer tax system is an annual event. It's easy to do, far harder to implement, not least when, you suspect, the political will just isn't there.
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From
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São Tomé and Príncipe is a small island country located in the Gulf of Guinea. It is covered by tropical forests, coral reefs, and impressive beaches. Extreme phenomena related to climate change, such as strong sea disturbances, coastal erosion, land collapses, and increasingly frequent river, rainfall, and coastal floods, pose a growing threat to communities, public and private infrastructure, and the country's economy.
To address these challenges, the World Bank is working with the Government of São Tomé and Príncipe to implement the West Africa Coastal Areas Coastal Adaptation Program, with the aim to enhance the resilience of coastal communities by addressing key socio-economic and environmental factors. These factors contribute to the vulnerability of populations, ecosystems, and coastal assets, making them susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate-related and man-made pressures.
Graham Watson's insight:
This World Bank mini doc looks at attempts to increase the resilience of infrastructure in the island state of Sao Tome and Prinicipe. The aim of such schemes is to counter the effects of climate change and extreme weather in this developing economy, and in doing so underpinning sustainable development.
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Companies in the oil, hotel, meat and other sectors are price-gouging the US public. They’re not hiding it, either
Graham Watson's insight:
Evidence in the US of widespread 'greedflation' with companies using an inflationary environment to hike up prices - so-called price gouging.
Matt Stoller cites evidence alleging that the practice is widespread, occurring everywhere from the oil industry to rents to food, and the suggestion is that there's also been a commensurate rise in collusion between firms too. As a result, he's calling for tougher competition policy, and more vigorous enforcement by the Federal Trade Commission.
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While price growth has fallen sharply, with April’s 3.4% lower than March’s 3.5%, it is still higher than Fed’s medium-term goal of 2%
Graham Watson's insight:
Both the UK and the US are currently waiting for the next interest rate cut; however, it doesn't seem to be imminent in either economy because in both instances the respective central bank is nervous about the fact that inflation hasn't quite fallen far enough.
In the US inflation is currently 3.4%, but that's still 1.4% higher than the Federal Reserve's medium-term goal of 2%, and there's concern that inflationary pressure hasn't yet been driven out of either economy.
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Last week, Washington announce new tariffs on Chinese imports including electric cars and solar panels.
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's China's retaliation to US and EU trade barriers - and further proof of why trade wars are so damaging. China is launching an anti-dumping probe into imports of an EU plastic, further distorting markets, increasing prices and reducing consumer choice.
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From
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Consumer prices in the US rose 3.4% over the 12 months to April, easing from 3.5% a month earlier.
Graham Watson's insight:
A slight easing of inflationary pressure in the US is going to see calls for a loosening of monetary policy, although I'd hardly call a fall from 3.4% to 3.5% significant, and indeed that seems to be the mood music emanating from the Fed.
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From
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The White House said they were a response to unfair policies and intended to protect US jobs.
Graham Watson's insight:
The trade war continues with the US imposing sizeable tariff on Chinese electric cars - from 25% to 100% - and solar panels - from 25% to 50% - too. In practical terms, it's difficult to see much immediate effect, given the low level of Chinese imports in many of these sectors, but it will be interesting, and more meaningful, if the EU follows suit.
Of course, whilst the tariffs have raised more than $200bn, you need to remember that it's paid by US consumers and not Chinese firms, something that seems to have escaped the former President.
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From
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Singapore has transformed itself from a colonial trading port to a buzzing financial centre in just a matter of decades. It’s been held up as an example of how small countries can seek a pathway to rapid growth and development. So what’s the city-state’s formula for success? And as Lawrence Wong takes over from Lee Hsien Loong as prime minister, what must he do to maintain it?
Graham Watson's insight:
The Singapore story: how has Singapore grown so rapidly, overtaking the UK and the US in terms of per capita GDP? This Bloomberg clip highlights how its location, and the classic approach of moving up the value chain from labour intensive manufactures to higher value-added activities, which these days means financial services and the tech sector.
However, it's debatable whether this approach can easily be replicated in other locations.
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Bureau of Labor Statistics releases latest estimate of how much labor receives of national income, showing bleak decline
Graham Watson's insight:
This Guardian article looks at the functional distribution of income and highlights the fact that the share of income going to capital, relative to labour has risen, heightening income inequality.
In common, with most parts of the world, it seems as though productivity gains result in higher wages for executives but little change in the wages of the ordinary worker.
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From
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Traders suffer a case of déjà-vu as any savings are wiped out with a new currency called the Zig.
Graham Watson's insight:
Evidence of the importance of a sound currency to a successful economy comes from Zimbabwe where the introduction of a new local currency has caused a degree of chaos.
The lack of faith in Zimbabwean currency is reflected in the fact that many traders already only accept US dollars, and use the local currency to give change. However, a shortage of the new money - the Zig - which stands for "Zimbabwe gold" - means that even menial transactions for things like bags of peanuts have become increasingly fraught.
The launch of the currency is another attempt to try and rein in inflation; the evidence, so far, is that it isn't working.
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The US central bank has left interest rates unchanged again, noting a "lack of further progress" on inflation.
Graham Watson's insight:
The Federal Reserve has stayed its hand, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5% because of a lack of progress towards reaching the inflation target. US inflation is currently 3.5% and has been stubborn in falling any further, so the Federal Reserve are cautious.
And what the Fed does, other central banks generally follow - Bagpuss economics, if you will - meaning that interest rates in the Eurozone and the UK might stay higher for longer too.
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Dublin records near-doubling of tax revenue from duties on imports of clothing, food and other goods from Great Britain
Graham Watson's insight:
At least it's not the case that everyone loses out from Brexit! The Irish government has received a 700m euro windfall from increased customs duties as once free trade between Britain and Eire has been replaced by trade with tariffs.
So, despite it costing consumers more to buy goods, the Irish government now have more revenues - in what sense is this welfare enhancing though? Or isn't it?
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Finance chiefs say higher taxes for the super-rich are key to battling global inequality and climate crisis
Graham Watson's insight:
And here's the accompanying letter from the Finance Ministers concerned...
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With the support of Austria's Federal Ministry of Finance and the World Bank, the Climate Support Facility's Western Balkans Plus Program has been promoting climate action and green growth across the countries of the Western Balkan Six since 2020 and expanded its activities intro Central Asia in 2023. This program shows that international collaboration, innovation, and timely funding can enable countries to address crucial climate and environmental challenges and build a more sustainable, resilient future for all.
Graham Watson's insight:
Another World Bank clip looking at climate action, this time in the Western Balkans. Since its launch in 2020, it has focused on improving air quality, encouraging the green transition and the adverse effects of climate change.
As a result, it's been rolled out into central Asia too.
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Can you believe this? Remarkable, isn't it.
Well, no. Not if you've heard his policy pronouncements, or witnessed his policymaking. But, apparently, the President of the US doesn't know much about Economics.
Watch for the inevitable tweets about 'how rich he is' and how this disproves Janet Yellen's observations...